Capital One Cup Tips: Man United clean sheet wait to be prolonged

This is more than just another Alan Pardew reunion to pile on top of his Premier League double headers with West Ham, Southampton and Newcastle, this is a pretty heated south London derby and a potential sleeper hit of the Capital One Cup third round.

Crystal Palace never seem to outclass or be outclassed by anyone, as evidenced by their last five league games all being decided by one-goal margins: two 2-1 in their favour, one 2-1 against and two 1-0 against. It is probably a blessing that their matches typically have a decisive outcome though, as two victories and three defeats pays more points than five draws.

Yet it provides Charlton with a chance too, particularly as the past four clashes between these rivals – and 13 of the most recent 15 over a longer period – were settled by one club scoring one more than the other.

Recommended Bet: Back Crystal Palace to win by one @ [3.75] and Charlton to win by one @ [8.0]

Newcastle [1.92] v Sheffield Wednesday [4.3]; The Draw [3.65]
Wednesday, 19:45

There will be many punters who wouldn’t touch Newcastle if they were 100/1 at the moment, but this writer sees it as a huge opportunity to be able to back them at close to evens against a side that even at Championship level haven’t been able to obtain an away win in over six months.

The Magpies’ surrender against Watford on Saturday was their first truly bad home display under Steve McClaren, having held a Southampton team that had just thumped Vitesse 5-0 on aggregate in the Europa League, thrashed Northampton 4-1 and limited Arsenal to one goal with ten men.

Also in their favour is Sheffield Wednesday’s record of six losses in eight Capital One Cup road trips, including a 7-0 humiliation at Manchester City at this stage last season.

Recommended Bet: Back Newcastle to win @ [1.92]

Man United [1.4] v Ipswich [8.2]; The Draw [5.2]
Wednesday, 20:00

How do you explain this one? Manchester United have looked a lot more secure since player of the year David de Gea signed his new contract and returned to the squad, but they have conceded more readily – five times in three fixtures compared to three in six previously. Perhaps the defence have slacked off since being relaxed by the restoration of their rock?

Whatever the reason, and despite there being a strong possibility of a recall for over-scrutinised understudy Sergio Romero owing to this being a domestic cup tie, they are likely to be breached once again by Ipswich, who have been in action 24 times since they last fired a blank.

Recommended Bet: Back Man United not to keep a clean sheet @ [1.78]

2015 NFL Preview: Oddsmakers Player Projections

With the non-stop dramedy of Deflategate finally resolved and Tom Brady’s 4-game suspension nullified, hopefully this issue can finally stop clogging up the media’s collective consciousness and we can begin looking forward to the start of the 2015 NFL season.

Thursday’s kickoff game features the New England Patriots (-7) hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, and we have discussed how Brady’s suspension has affected the sports betting marketplace. But what do oddsmakers think about Brady’s prospects this upcoming season?

On Wednesday (9/2) morning, Bovada posted hundreds of player prop bets for the upcoming NFL season. This included the over/under on yardage and scoring for nearly every major offensive skill position player — or at least, every player who has been all but assured of a starting role.

The over/under on Brady’s total yardage was set at 4300 which ranks him eighth behind the likes of both Manning brothers, Brees, Ryan, Luck, Roethlisberger and Stafford.

The tables below display the over/unders for quarterbacks, running backs and receivers (including tight ends). This information will be updated throughout the season.

Quarterbacks

On Tuesday (9/1) BetOnline posted a handful of player props and we pointed out how oddsmakers expectations for Drew Brees were too low. Bovada may have gone too far in the other direction by listing the over/under on Brees’ passing yards at 4700. This ranks ahead of Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger (4400) who have the two best odds of leading the league in passing yards.

Fantasy players may also be interested to see Peyton Manning with an over/under of 4600 passing yards and 37.5 touchdown passes. That ranks 300 yards and 2 touchdowns ahead of Aaron Rodgers — the consensus number one overall pick. Admittedly, Bovada is a square sportsbook and likely shaded their lines to account for the influx of over bettors, but even so it’s interesting to see Manning with such lofty expectations.

Additional QB Props:

Sam Bradford O/U 12.5 starts
Johnny Manziel O/U 5.5 starts
Robert Griffin -120 to start a regular season game for the Redskins

Running Backs

It’s not surprising to see Adrian Peterson with the highest over/under, but the co-favorite definitely comes as a surprise. LeSean McCoy, who is still adjusting to a new offense and is currently questionable for the season opener due to a hamstring injury, is expected to rush for 1,250 yards and tally 7.5 total touchdowns.

For fantasy purposes Justin Forsett and Lamar Miller appear to be undervalued based on ESPN’s current average draft position. Both backs are expected to tally 1,000 rushing yards yet they rank behind Mark Ingram (950) in terms of ADP.

It’s also worth noting that Bovada has posted rushing over/unders for a handful of mobile quarterbacks:

Russell Wilson: 600 rushing yards
Cam Newton: 550 rushing yards, 5 Rushing TD
Colin Kaepernick: 550 rushing yards
Marcus Mariota: 400 rushing yards

Receivers/Tight Ends

Although most sportsbooks have Antonio Brown listed as the favorite to lead football in receiving yards (or listed as the co-favorite alongside Julio Jones) oddsmakers are actually most optimistic about Demaryius “Targaryen” Thomas. The Broncos receiver is expected to record 50 receiving yards more than Brown and 100 yards more than Jones. In terms of receiving touchdowns, Thomas’ projection of 11 ranks second only to Dez Bryant (11.5).

In terms of players to avoid, oddsmakers are bearish about the Jaguars newest offensive weapon — Julius Thomas. In his past two seasons with the Broncos the athletic tight end tallied 24 total touchdowns, but oddsmakers have set his over/under at just 4.5 TD for the 2015 season. It’s tough to be optimistic when your quarterback is downgraded from Peyton Manning to Blake Bortles.

One potentially undervalued fantasy receiver is Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins. Bovada set the over/under for Hopkins’ receiving yards at 1100, which is tied with Alshon Jeffrey and T.Y. Hilton for ninth highest. Despite the player projections from oddsmakers, Hopkins is only the 14th ranked receiver based on ESPN’s ADP.

For the latest lines, betting trends and more, bettors should be sure to bookmark our free NFL odds page. Looking for Best Bets, Bet Signals and valuable features like the line watcher, line predictor and value meter? Sign up for our Early Bird Special and save 40% on more than 4 months of our Pro subscription.